Linkage Theory and Regional Security: Assessing the Interrelatedness of Climate Change, Human Mobility, and Violence in West Africa

Abstract

This paper examines how climate change, human mobility and violent conflict are mutually reinforcing and collectively shape regional security in West Africa, using linkage theory as its analytical lens. It problematizes the tendency of policy and academic debates to treat climate impacts, migration and violence as discrete phenomena, arguing that this fragmentation obscures how environmental stress, livelihood collapse and governance failures interact to generate complex security risks. Linkage theory is employed to connect multiple data sources and levels of analysis, enabling the identification of indirect pathways through which climate variability alters migration patterns, intensifies farmer–herder conflicts, and provides openings for elite manipulation of local grievances and armed group recruitment. Drawing on an ex post facto research design and secondary data analyzed through qualitative content analysis, the study finds that while West Africa contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions, the sub‑region is acutely vulnerable to climate shocks that exacerbate livelihood insecurity, trigger intra‑regional migration as a survival strategy, and contribute to multi‑causal conflicts alongside poor governance and demographic pressures. The paper recommends stronger synergy among ECOWAS member states in integrating climate, migration and security into regional prevention frameworks, deeper mainstreaming of climate risk into ECOWAS environmental and security policies, and the design of conflict prevention and adaptation strategies that disaggregate the multidimensional nature of West African conflicts. It further suggests that where adaptation is insufficient, sustainable industrialization and diversified livelihoods are essential to reduce climate‑related insecurity and forced mobility in the sub‑region.