Maghreb Power Struggle: An Offensive Realist Analysis of Moroccan-Algerian Rivalry

Abstract

This paper analyzes the long-standing conflict between Morocco and Algeria in the Maghreb region using John Mearsheimer's offensive realism theory. Through the evaluation of historical enmities, the conflict over Western Sahara, and rivaling geopolitical blocs, this study illustrates the self-help nature of the international order that rewards the adoption of aggressive policies such as militarization, hybrid conflict, and alignment with global powers. The methodology integrates discourse analysis of elite narratives and escalation pathways with comparative case studies, such as Morocco’s normalization with Israel in the 2020 Abraham Accords and Algeria’s military agreement with Russia in 2023, alongside the analysis of the narratives accompanying the escalation. Both states seek to justify hegemonic behaviors by application of offensive realism arguments, such as survival in an anarchical system, a lack of trust regarding the intentions of adversaries, and the need to gain power more than what is required. Morocco acquiring asymmetric Israeli military drones and USA defense partnerships, along with Algeria’s Russian Su-57 jets and cyberwarfare investment arms race is a spiral of security dilemma proliferation through external sponsor enablement. With Algeria utilizing the Polisario Front to limit Moroccan influence, Morocco strategically frames the Western Sahara conflict as essential for maintaining national integrity leading to Morocco-Algeria territorial conflict polarization in the region. These phenomena led to Morocco-Algeria stunted integration through the immobilized energy politics of the Arab Maghreb Union, bifid energy diplomacy of green hydrogen partnerships led by Morocco versus gas siphoning geopolitics of Algeria, and proxy wars in the Sahel region. This transforms the Maghreb region into a bipolar security complex with increased chances of open conflict, driven by NATO encroachment through Morocco and Russian encroachment via Algeria, this study identifies as an outcome of NATO and Russian intrusion in North Africa. Using the lens of regional security complex theory in conjunction with offensive realism, this research sought to analyze how rivalries between middle powers impact outer peripheries of the geostrategic world in the context of multipolar competition. Proposals focused on the EU-mediated energy collaboration, African Union cyber stability initiatives, and other measures aimed at escalation reduction are provided alongside the findings.