Deterioration of ANC Support: Conceptual Analysis of Rural-Urban Voters Patterns in South African Elections

Abstract

The 2016 local government elections in South Africa were received as a shocking event, despite a strong belief that the African National Congress will always rule. ANC has ruled the country since the end of apartheid in 1994, but in the 2016 municipal elections, it recorded its worst result ever post-apartheid. In 2016, some scholars and analysts were already predicting that the ANC would see further decline in the next elections, especially in major cities. The ANC suffered electoral defeats that culminated in significant losses. It lost its majority in important urban metropolitan municipalities and economic centers such as Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Johannesburg, and Nelson Mandela Bay. Only through a coalition agreement did the party retain control in Ekurhuleni. Drawing on theoretical literature and reports, the paper attempts to analyze the decline in support for ANC, particularly in metropolitan communities, and to understand the voting behavior of rural and urban voters. Despite the drastic losses of ANC in metropolitan areas, there are areas such as Limpopo, Mpumalanga and Northwest that can still be considered ANC strong holds. This calls for an examination of the voting behavior of people in rural and urban areas. The paper notes that factors such as perceived loyalty, concerns about service delivery, and voter education contribute to perceived established voting behavior and the continued decline in support for ANC. The paper recommends that ANC improve service delivery and eliminate corruption within its ranks if it wants to recapture power in major cities.