Structural Shocks and Migrant Worker Vulnerability in Singapore: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis from 2005 to 2025

Abstract

The large numbers of low-waged migrant workers in Singapore leads to the concentration of employment opportunities in high-risk, low-protection jobs and ties up most workers to single-employer licenses; this relationship stifles injury reporting and limits access to care, and increases occupational vulnerability. This paper is based on a time-series analysis that uses the period of 2005-2025 to model the inflow of migrant workers into Singapore with a time variable, a Post-COVID level indicator and Time×Post-COVID interaction to determine the structural changes around the COVID-19 pandemic. The results indicate that the baseline time trend has a positive effect on the outcome over time (coefficient = 0.0384), that the occurrence of COVID is accompanied by a significant immediate decline of the outcome (coefficient = –0.3227), and that the post-COVID interaction suggests a positive change in the outcome growth thereafter (coefficient = 0.0383). Marginal-effects interpretation demonstrates a negative level effect at the onset of the COVID and faster growth afterward, which provisces that the shock decreased the levels, but was succeeded by an aggravated positive direction. These trends refer to both immediate negative effects of crises, as well as structural processes that require the policy to remedy, such as the enhancement of reporting protective measures, healthcare access, and structural labor reforms of migrant employees.